Economic Numbers 6.13.2022
- The 10-year budget forecast released by the Congressional Budget Office on 5/25/2022 predicts that over the next decade (fiscal year 2023 through fiscal year 2032) the government will collect $56.5 trillion in tax revenues (i.e., “receipts”), spend $72.2 trillion (i.e., “outlays”), netting to a $15.7 trillion deficit created over the next 10 years. That’s on top of our national debt of $30.5 trillion as of 5/31/2022 (source: CBO).
- Social Security trustees announced on 6/02/2022 that the trust fund backing the payment of Social Security benefits (OASI retirement benefits) would be zero in 2034. A zero “trust fund” does not mean the payment of Social Security benefits would also go to zero, but rather would drop to 77% of their originally promised levels through the year 2096. When the trustees released their report in 2007 (i.e., 15 years ago), the Social Security Trust Fund was projected to be depleted in 2042 (source: Social Security Trustees 2022 Report).
- The estimated Social Security shortfall today (i.e., a present value number) between the future taxes anticipated being collected and the future benefits expected to be paid out over the next 75 years is $20.4 trillion. The entire $20.4 trillion deficit could be eliminated by an immediate 3.24 percentage point increase in the combined Social Security payroll tax rate (from 12.40% to 15.64%) or an immediate 20.3% reduction in benefits that are paid out to current and future beneficiaries (source: Social Security Trustees 2022 Report).
- The number of job openings nationwide as of 4/30/2022 was 11.40 million, nearly twice the 5.94 million jobless Americans as of the same date (source: Department of Labor).
- Revolving debt in the United States, i.e., credit card debt and other similar types of debt that do not have a fixed number of payments, increased by $124.5 billion over the 12 months ending 3/31/2022 to reach $1.04 trillion. Although the $1.04 trillion is short of nation’s all-time record high of $1.09 trillion (12/31/2019), the $124.5 billion annual increase is the largest year-over-year dollar increase in US history. Revolving debt has been tracked nationally since January 1968 (source: Federal Reserve).
- 41.3% of college graduates aged 22 to 27 are working in jobs in which they are “underemployed,” i.e., they are working in a job as of December 2021 that typically does not require a college degree. Historically, 33.9% of college graduates are “underemployed” (source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY).
- The average net worth needed to be considered wealthy in the United States today is $2.2 million based on a survey completed by 1,000 individuals in February 2022 (source: Schwab Modern Wealth Survey).
- Existing home prices in the United States have risen for 43 consecutive quarters through the end of the 1st Q 2022, i.e., from 6/30/2011 through 3/31/2022 (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency).